Trump's Second Act: House Speaker?
Here’s a fun fact about the Constitution: this document created the office of the Speaker of the House in 1789 but does not require its occupant to be a sitting member of the body, although every Speaker so far has been.
This means President Trump could run for the office of Speaker. Ascending to the Speakership would round out two-firsts for a man that partisans on all sides regard as extraordinary: the first President never to have held public office or serve in the U.S. military and the first House Speaker not to sit in that body.
This idea came to mind because, as a young staffer in the House, I hatched a scheme to deliver enough Republican votes to elect Danny Rostenkowski Speaker over the odious Jim Wright. The plan went nowhere, but the concept of a bi-partisan House leadership has not left me. The idea is unconventional, but so is Trump.
The novelty of being the first non-House Speaker would be eclipsed by what would precede it, the most entertaining Speaker race in history as he squares off against his nemesis, Speaker Pelosi.
The president would need five or so votes from Democrat House members to win (assuming no Republican defections), depending on the outcome of current challenges in a few close races. The Republicans have flipped more seats than anyone expected on November 3rd and, while unlikely, perhaps the president could flip a couple of Democrats in a Speakership race as well, particularly those who are not enamored with a Squad influenced floor agenda.
The president would scrum in House districts he won handily in November to the utter horror of Democrat members holding those seats. And, even if he lost, having those members record votes against him would weigh heavily on their reelection efforts in 2022.
Notably, fifteen Democrats opposed Speaker Pelosi in her successful 2019 vote, and ten of those members will be voting on her Speakership this January. These members are not likely to abandon her for Trump, but what one would give to be a fly on the wall of House Democrat caucus meetings when this race is discussed. These, and other moderate members, will likely demand that progressive priorities be scrubbed from the House floor agenda, which would be a victory of sorts even if Trump losses his bid.
If nothing else, Trump, as Speaker, would be endlessly entertaining. Imagine a President Biden having to negotiate legislation with the man he thought he vanquished. Or imagine the spectacle of Mr. Trump sitting in the Speaker’s chair on the House dais behind a President Biden while the latter gives his State of the Union speeches. That would be from the same dais-chair that Speaker Pelosi used to rip up Trump’s last State of the Union speech. To put it lightly, this precedent is one Speaker Pelosi and her party may regret.
As Speaker, Trump would help set the agenda on which legislative bills would be considered by the full House and preside over a chamber where he and his newly appointed Parliamentarian would rule on floor procedural disputes. Traditionally, the Speaker selects the majority party members of the powerful House Rules Committee, which determines which amendments can be considered in the House as a whole. While that tradition may not survive if he won, Trump would certainly be in a position to influence those appointments. It is safe to say that Progressives and their interest groups would be terrified of a Trump Speakership.
Love him or hate him, as almost everybody does, the theater of Trumpism has consumed the political ether like nothing else. Even Democrats admit there has not been a political phenomenon like this man in modern times, but most think that once out of the White House the sun will set on his political empire. One partisan recently wrote that the man is finished because of the “abundant precedents suggesting Trump does not have another important act in national politics.” But even that writer would agree, I think, that a Trump Speakership in 2021 (or 2023) would count as “another important act,” shredding those precedents.
Consider that a Trump Speakership run in 2023 would be set up nicely even with a Trump loss for the office in 2021. The party that controls the White House historically loses seats in the off-year election and only five-seats or so must flip to make him Speaker in 2023. Further, to give their man a shot at the office, turnout from his supporters in the 2023 House midterms would surge. In Washington parlance, local races would be ‘nationalized,’ particularly with his singular rallies, increasing his chances to preside over the House in the final two years of a Biden/Harris Administration.
And, finally, a Trump Speakership, as a second act, could lead to a third one by putting him in a uniquely powerful position to launch another campaign for the Presidency in 2024, or, at the least, be in a strong position to influence who he thinks should stand in his stead.
Mark Mackie, MA, JD, is former Chief Counsel for the US Senate Committee on Rules and practices law in the Dallas/Fort Worth area.